The date is set. On Friday, November 23, 2018, Tiger Woods will face off in a one on one match play format, pay-per-view golf match versus Phil Mickelson for nine million dollars. A lot of hype has been built over Twitter with tweets coming from Tiger saying “It’s On” and a Phil Mickelson reply of “I bet you think this is the easiest $9M you will ever make.”

So who will actually win? There are many different ways you can approach figuring out who will win and they all point to Tiger Woods. For starters, the Las Vegas Odds have Tiger at -170 and Phil Mickelson and +140. These numbers mean that for every dollar and seventy cents bet towards Tiger you will win one dollar and for Phil Mickelson it means for every dollar bet you will receive a dollar and forty cents, if they win. With the match being played at Shadow Creek Golf Course in Las Vegas, the betting doesn’t end at winning and losing. You can also bet on shirt color with white being the +150 favorite for Phil and any other color besides red, white or black the likeliest option for Tiger at +150 odds. There is also a spread set out for the match play tournament at -1.5 for Tiger Woods at -170 and +1.5 at +140 for Phil Mickelson.

Now, let’s talk about how their performances have been this calendar year. There are two main sources that calculate performances throughout the golf season, the Official World Golf Rankings and FedEx Cup Standings. In the Official World Golf Rankings, Tiger Woods is ranked 13th compared to Phil Mickelson’s 25th place and also in FedEx Cup Rankings Tiger has the edge ranking 2nd compared to Phil Mickelson’s 21st. Throughout the PGA Tour season both competitors have had 6 top-10 finishes but Phil Mickelson has won this year unlike Tiger.

Despite a few counter arguments, it is clear to me that Tiger Woods will win the match against Phil Mickelson. One of the main reasons I believe this is because of Tiger Woods’ success so far throughout the Fedex Cup Playoffs. Tiger Woods has had 4 top-6 finishes or better since July 1st, meanwhile Phil Mickelson only has one top-6 finish since May. Phil Mickelson also just came off of a tied 58th out of 70 place finish 2 weeks ago at the BMW Championship. Meanwhile, Tiger finished tied for 6th just 3 strokes behind the lead. To further prove Tiger’s hot play and Phil Mickelson’s struggles lately, Tiger Woods recently won the tour championship while Phil Mickelson finished dead last. For those reasons, I believe Tiger Woods will win his one on one match vs Phil Mickelson because of his recent hot play, competitiveness, and his proven ability to be a winner.